MOSCOW, May 20. /TASS/. Vladimir Putin reaffirms Russia’s readiness to work with Ukraine on a future peace agreement following a phone call with Donald Trump; Israel begins a major operation to establish control over Gaza; and recent elections in three EU countries show a rise in the popularity of right-wing forces. These stories have topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Russia ready to engage on future peace agreement with Ukraine
Russia is ready to work with Ukraine to develop a memorandum on a future peace agreement, President Vladimir Putin said following the third phone call with his US counterpart Donald Trump. Moscow and Washington have a lot of disagreements but there are opportunities for them to move in the right direction, Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, told Izvestia.
Vladimir Zelensky said after the Putin-Trump call that Kiev and Moscow could sign a memorandum paving the way for an agreement on ending the conflict. Donald Trump also made a statement following his conversation with Putin, saying that Russia and Ukraine would soon launch talks on a ceasefire and an end to the conflict.
Trump allows himself enough room for maneuver by reducing the level of foreign policy ambition, including his initial overly optimistic promise to end the conflict in 24 hours. Even in the worst-case scenario for his peacekeeping efforts, he will be able to make it appear that his promise to find a quick solution to the conflict and threats of the US withdrawing from negotiation processes were a rhetorical device and a tool of pressure, Higher School of Economics analyst Yegor Toropov points out. "In practice, America does not plan to completely walk away under any scenario as it would definitely mean a failure of the US leader’s efforts in the eyes of American voters, whom Trump promised to do his best to promote peace across the world," the expert elaborated.
A direct conversation between the leaders of Russia and the United States is the highest level of bilateral communication between the countries, designed to address crucial issues such as strategic dialogue, Fyodor Voitolovsky, director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Vedomosti. The very fact of the call - regardless of the range of the issues discussed and the agreements reached - is a step forward in terms of bilateral relations. However, the expert believes it’s important to realize the broad range of this relationship. "Russia-US interaction is not confined to Ukraine. It’s far wider because it concerns numerous topics, including the global security infrastructure, arms control issues, nuclear disarmament and the fight against international terrorism," he specified.
As for resolving the Ukraine crisis, Voitolovsky believes that the Trump administration is gradually coming to understand the complexity of the conflict but remains ready to invest its political capital into the development of ways to resolve it.
According to Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, the positive change is that despite facing calls to increase pressure on Russia, Trump keeps a balance and maintains dialogue with Putin.
Media: Israel begins major campaign to establish control over Gaza
Israel has allowed the UN to resume humanitarian aid supplies to the besieged Gaza Strip for the first time since the ceasefire ended on March 2. The move came amid growing pressure from the international community and the United States. Meanwhile, Israel is intensifying its ground operation in the Palestinian enclave, Vedomosti reports.
Israel seems to have failed to develop an effective alternative supply scheme for Palestinians in Gaza, which is why it was forced to soften its position due to a considerable deterioration of the situation in the enclave and US pressure, Lyudmila Samarskaya, researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes. Middle East expert Ruslan Suleimanov agrees, pointing out that Israel’s decision came right after US President Donald Trump’s visit to the region. Still, this is the greatest concession the Israeli leadership is ready to make at this point, Suleimanov said.
The humanitarian blockade was broken as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched another large-scale ground operation, dubbed "Gideon’s Chariots," in the north and south of Gaza. The military operation is an element of Israel’s strategy to pressure the Hamas movement in order to release Israeli hostages, Samarskaya notes. Suleimanov remarks that Israel has not changed the goals and methods of the war as it remains determined to fully eliminate Hamas and free all hostages. Military operations will continue as long as Washington supports them, the Middle East expert added.
Israel is unlikely to completely seize Gaza, Ivan Bocharov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, observed. First, local Palestinians have no plans to voluntarily move to the neighboring Arab countries and will apparently continue to carry out armed attacks on Israeli security forces. Second, holding a territory with a hostile population would lead to mounting economic costs for Israel.
Peace in the region is impossible without resolving the Palestinian issue, Ahmed Seyd, an Egyptian expert on international relations, told Izvestia. The logic of aggression and attempts to change Gaza’s demographic map will eventually damage the interests of the US and will not bring peace to Israel, the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: Elections in three EU countries signal rising popularity of right-wing forces
The recent elections in three EU countries (Romania, Portugal, and Poland) have made it clear that the popularity of right-wing forces is growing but they are currently struggling to gain real power. The confrontation was the most challenging in Romania, where Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan and George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians, faced each other in a presidential runoff. Dan won, securing 53.7% of the vote, Vedomosti writes.
Dan managed to win the majority of votes not only at home but also abroad, according to Alina Azarenkova, a lecturer with the Department of Political Science at the Moscow State Linguistic University. The mobilization of voters supporting the liberal candidates that had lost in the first round of the election could have played a key role, while voter turnout reached a record 30-year high of 64%, the expert specified.
In Portugal, the Democratic Alliance of right-wing and center parties, led by the prime minister, won an early parliamentary election, gaining 33% of the vote. The Chega (or Enough!) far-right party set a record, receiving 22.6% and sharing second place with the Socialist Party. This is something unheard of in Portugal since the overthrow of the dictatorship in 1974, Georgy Kutyrev, a researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, notes. "It used to be thought that there could be no far-right parties in Portugal, a country that has seen an authoritarian regime. However, the Enough! party has managed to show strong results among young voters due to the migration issue," the expert concluded.
Poland, where the Civic Platform liberal right coalition is in power, has held the first round of its presidential election. Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who represents the Civic Platform, came first with 31.36% of the vote. Karol Nawrocki, a candidate of the opposition party Law and Justice, was second with 29.54%. The figures point to the growing societal polarization, Dmitry Bunevich, advisor to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, observed.
European Union institutions are concerned about the activities of right-wing forces, which they see as destructive, remarked Artyom Sokolov, a researcher at the European Studies Institute of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. The outcome of the elections shows that the European bureaucracy’s confrontation with them is going to last for quite a while.
Kommersant: Investors hopeful for continuation of talks on Ukraine
Another phone call between the presidents of Russia and the United States provoked a strong reaction on the market. The struggle between the bulls and the bears on the Russian stock market went on with varying success. Meanwhile, investors are encouraged by the fact that the two countries’ leaders continue to stay in contact, Kommersant notes.
"Market participants had some positive expectations but we heard nothing new this time, while volatility is commonplace after a long-awaited development," Ivan Yefanov, an analyst at the Tsifra Broker investment company, pointed out.
Investors respond positively to almost any continuation of talks on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but few of them expect a major breakthrough on the issue to be made in the near future. "Investors believe that a continuation of dialogue in any form is a good thing but if there is no regular dialogue or communication stalls for a long time, the risk of new sanctions will grow," Igor Danilenko, head of trust asset management at Renaissance Capital, emphasized.
According to Artyom Autlev, an analyst at Ingosstrakh Investment, the market has shown quite a measured reaction because the outcome of the talks may prove both positive and negative.
Expectations of talks briefly brought the dollar exchange rate below the 80 ruble level. Head of Analytics at Zenit Bank Vladimir Yevstifeyev believes that the strengthening of the ruble was the result of the US currency’s weakening on the global market. "The dollar is getting cheaper on the global market following the Moody’s agency’s move to downgrade the US credit rating, as the US has now lost the highest sovereign rating with all the Big Three credit rating agencies," Yevstifeyev explained.
Talks alone are no longer enough for the Russian stock market to grow. Specific agreements are needed but market participants currently don’t see the required conditions for such a development.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Gold price falls sharply after series of records
Gold prices have dropped by almost 8% after reaching an all-time high of over $3,500 per troy ounce in late April. The precious metal’s rate declined due to a pause in the trade war between the US and China. However, the US administration's protectionist trade policy remains in place. That said, gold may not only match its price record but also reach new highs, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
The situation around the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing was resolved last week, albeit temporarily. Excessive three-digit tariffs, which make no economic sense, were reduced, with both countries agreeing to lower them for 90 days and work on a new trade agreement.
"This once again sent the US dollar up as capital started to flow from gold, seen by investors as the most reliable safe haven, into the dollar again. After all, even though the dollar's credibility has been significantly undermined, it still has an advantage over gold and other precious metals due to its high liquidity," Freedom Finance leading analyst Natalya Milchakova stressed. However, given the US protectionist policy and potential world trade disruptions, the overall global situation, as well as the situation in the US economy, looks quite uncertain and difficult, she added.
The United States’ improving economic prospects may put pressure on gold prices in the short term but globally, geopolitical uncertainty is still there, said Marina Nikishova, chief economist at Zenit Bank. Investors were alarmed by the Moody’s agency’s decision to downgrade the US long-term rating, while concern about the level of the United States’ public debt makes investors want to hedge against inflation, which supports interest in defensive assets. Besides, demand for gold remains high among global central banks, which is another reason for a potential price rebound.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews